First Day: 19 September 2024
Venue: Modena, via Berengario 51, (East Building, First Floor, Room 7)
09.00 – 09.30 Registration
09.30 – 10.10 Session 1: “Geopolitical and Systemic Risks”
09.30 – 10.10 Cristina Alexandra De Oliveira Amado (University of Minho, Portugal & University Carlo III of Madrid, Spain), “Measuring geopolitical risk on energy inflation: A panel quantile approach” joint with Ignacio Garron Vedia (University Carlo III of Madrid) and Helena Veiga (University Carlo III of Madrid)
10.10 – 10.50 Stephania Mosquera López (Orkestra – Basque Institute of Competitiveness and Deusto Business School, University of Deusto, Bilbao, Spain), “Measuring systemic risk in energy markets”, joint with Jorge M. Uribe (University of Barcelona) and Santiago Bohórquez Correa (University of Deusto)
10.50 – 11.20 coffee break
11.20 – 12.40 Session 2: “Risks from Arbitrage and Transitions”
11.20 – 12.00 Takuji Matsumoto (Kanazawa University, Japan), “Unveiling Forward Premium Dynamics: Theoretical and Empirical Insights from Limit Order Arbitrage Models”, joint with Derek Bunn (LBS)
12.00 – 12.40 Sławomir Śmiech (Krakow University of Economics, Poland), “The impact of energy transitions on energy poverty: evidence from the European Union countries“, joint with Lilia Karpinska (Krakow University of Economics, Poland), and Stefan Bouzarovski (University of Manchester)
13.00 – 14.30 Light Lunch
14.30 – 15.30 Keynote Talk – Chair: Angelica Gianfreda
Tommaso Proietti (University of Rome “Tor Vergata” and CREATES), “Ups and (Draw)Downs“
15.30 – 16.00 coffee break
16.00 – 17.20 Session 3: “Technical and Operational Risks”
16.00 – 16.40 Christoph Graf (New York University, USA), “Simplified Market Mechanisms: Evidence from the Italian Electricity Market” joint with F. Quaglia (Terna S.p.A., Italy) and F. A. Wolak (Stanford University, USA)
16.40 – 17.20 Federica Davò (Ricerca Sistema Energetico, RSE, Italy), “Impact of the abolition of PUN on the outcomes of the Italian day-ahead market” joint with Alessandro Zani (RSE) and Dario Siface (RSE)
20.00 Social Dinner, place TBA
Second Day: 20 September 2024
09.30 – 10.50 Session 4: “Market Risks”
09.30 – 10.10 Federico Quaglia (Terna S.p.A., Italy), “Spot electricity prices: relevant changes in the recent years and key drivers”, joint with Mauro Caprabianca (Terna S.p.A., Italy), Valerio Catalano (Terna S.p.A., Italy), M. Limone (Terna S.p.A., Italy) and G. Screpanti (Terna S.p.A., Italy)
10.10 – 10.50 Nuno Carvalho Figueiredo (University of Coimbra, Portugal),”Volatility of the Merit-order effect: an update on solar and wind power in Iberia“ joint with Patrícia Pereira da Silva (University of Coimbra, Portugal)
10.50 – 11.20 coffee break
11.20 – 12.40 Session 5: “Forecasting”
11.20 – 12.00 Katarzyna Maciejowska (Wrocław University of Science and Technology, Poland), “Economic value of multidimensional probabilistic forecasts of electricity markets“ joint with Weronika Nitka (Wrocław University of Science and Technology, Poland) and Tomasz Weron (Wrocław University of Science and Technology, Poland)
12.00 – 12.40 Derek Bunn (London Business School, United Kingdom), “Forecasting Electricity Real-time Imbalance Prices“
13.00 – 14.30 Light Lunch
14.30 – 15.30 Keynote Talk – Chair: Giacomo Scandolo
Emanuele Borgonovo (Bocconi University), “Global Sensitivity Analysis with Optimal Transport” joint with Alessio Figalli (ETH), Elmar Plischke (Dresden), Promit Ghosal (University of Chicago) and Giuseppe Savarè (Bocconi University)
15.30 – 16.00 coffee break
16.00 – 17.20 Session 6: “Weather and Environmental Risks”
16.00 – 16.40 Gabriele Martinelli (LSEG Power Research, Norway), “Modelling weather risks for the evaluation of renewable investments” joint with Flores Margarita (LSEG Power Research) and Gaspar Machado (LSEG Power Research)
16.40 – 17.20 Monika Papież (Krakow University of Economics, Poland), “How does the Environmental Policy Stringency affect the CO2 emissions in OECD and BRICS countries?” joint with Sławomir Śmiech (Krakow University of Economics, Poland), Justyna Borowiec (Krakow University of Economics, Poland)
17.20 – 17.30 Discussions and Conclusions
18.00 – 20.00 Social Event